On the December 3 edition of Fox News' The O'Reilly Factor, Fox News analyst and
syndicated columnist Dick Morris asked host Bill O'Reilly, "Do you believe [Sen.] Hillary Clinton
will run a primary against [President-elect] Barack Obama for president in 2012?" After O'Reilly
responded, "Yes," Morris said, "Damn right she will." Later in the segment, Morris added that
Obama has "built in to his administration the seeds of his own destruction." But as a
prognosticator of political events, as Media Matters for America has documented, Morris has at times been wildly off
the mark. Morris' latest prediction is also inconsistent with his April 25
column, in which he wrote: "Does Hillary want to beat up Obama so that he can't win the
general election in November, assuring [Sen. John] McCain of the presidency so that she can have
a clear field to run again in 2012? Obviously, if Obama beats McCain, Hillary is out of the
picture until 2016, by which time, at 69 years old, she might be too old to run."
As Media Matters documented, in
columns in The Hill and the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and appearances on Fox
News in 2005, Morris repeatedly touted New York Republican Jeanine Pirro's 2006 Senate campaign
against Clinton. Morris asserted, regarding Clinton running for a second Senate term, "[T]he
first thing I would tell Hillary, if I were advising Hillary, is you're crazy to run for the
Senate." He also asserted that Clinton "might just take a pass" rather than face Pirro in the
election, and even stated, "My bet is that Clinton thinks the better of it and drops out of the
race if Pirro comes on strong." However, it was Pirro -- not Clinton -- who, trailing
badly in polls,
dropped out of the race on December 21, 2005.
Morris also predicted that
Rep. Rick Lazio (R-NY) would defeat Clinton in the 2000 New York Senate race. One day prior to
the election, on the November 6, 2000, edition of The O'Reilly Factor, Morris asserted:
"I think Lazio is, at this point, more likely to win it than Hillary, because, if Hillary is at
48 percent -- or even at 49 percent, or even at 50 percent -- a lot of her vote of minorities, a
lot of her -- who have no real reason to vote in the presidential race." Lazio lost to
Clinton by more than 12 percentage points, even though he
outspent her by nearly $11 million.
Morris also made significantly off-base predictions about the 2008 presidential election.
According to his final predicted
electoral map, released on October 27, Morris labeled Arkansas "lean Obama." McCain
won Arkansas by 20 percentage points, and
according to Pollster.com, Obama led in that state in only one poll throughout the entire
race -- by two percentage points in a June 11-30 Zogby Internet survey. Morris' final electoral
map also had Louisiana and Tennessee as "tossup" states; McCain
won each of these states by at least 15 percentage points.
From the December 3 edition of Fox News' The O'Reilly Factor:
O'REILLY: I don't mind Hillary Clinton as secretary of state. I'm thinking she has a certain
gravitas out there, and I think she's pretty tough. You would agree with that. She's tough.
MORRIS: She's -- she's tough. She's to the right of him, which is good.
O'REILLY: Right.
MORRIS: She'd be tougher on national security issues, and I think she'd be good from that point
of view. My concern --
O'REILLY: All right, so you have no problem --
MORRIS: My concern -- and I think, by the way, the disclosure deal that Bill has agreed to isn't
a bad one, about Dubai and all that stuff. The thing that worries me from Obama's point of view
about Hillary Clinton -- let's follow your logic. Let's say there's a terror attack. And let's
say Obama's popularity drops. Let's say the economy doesn't improve, and his popularity's down
around 27 percent. Do you believe Hillary Clinton will run a primary against Barack Obama for
president --
O'REILLY: Yes.
MORRIS: -- in 2012? Damn right she will.
O'REILLY: Yeah, everybody knows that.
MORRIS: From -- from the State Department.
O'REILLY: Well, no, she'll resign.
MORRIS: Yeah, a week before she does.
O'REILLY: She'll resign --
MORRIS: It's just like when Johnson --
O'REILLY: Right.
MORRIS: -- inherited Bobby Kennedy at the Justice Department.
O'REILLY: But she's famous enough, like, if she feels that she can be president in four years,
she'll resign.
MORRIS: She'll go for it.
O'REILLY: And, yeah, and run against him like Kennedy and [inaudible].
MORRIS: So what Obama is doing is he's built in to his administration the seeds of his own
destruction.
O'REILLY: I don't know about that. She'd run against him anyway --
MORRIS: Yeah, but --
O'REILLY: -- if she were the senator from New York.
MORRIS: Yeah, but she wouldn't have the rationale that, "This guy thought I was so qualified he
put me in charge of foreign policy."
O'REILLY: This is where -- this is where you go off the cliff. If she's gonna run, if she sees
him in trouble, no matter where she is --
MORRIS: Yes, but the credential --
O'REILLY: But I think it was a smart pick.
MORRIS: But the credential of secretary of state would make that candidacy so much more powerful.
O'REILLY: That I'm not sure. If there was a terror attack, it could work against her. All right,
Dick Morris, everybody.
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